Bitcoin’s price is clinging below $90,000 as it approaches the November monthly close, with traders eyeing a potential rebound to $96,000 amid lingering effects from a recent “death cross” signal that could signal prolonged downside pressure.
Bitcoin's Weekly Market Dynamics
Technical Signals and Price Resistance
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects heightened uncertainty, with the cryptocurrency trading around $88,000, where it faces a clear resistance level. Following a low of $80,500 last week, the asset has shown modest signs of stabilization but remains vulnerable to further declines. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 20-period simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in two weeks, a development that some analysts view as a short-term positive.
- Key resistance at $88,000, per market data, limiting upside momentum.
- Potential weekly close above $92,000 could support a rally toward $105,000–$110,000, according to trader BitBull.
- The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) now aligns with a macro downtrend line, potentially acting as reinforced resistance if breached.
The death cross, which occurred on November 15 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA, adds to the bearish outlook. Historically, such crosses have marked local lows during bull cycles, but failure to bounce soon could target the 200-day SMA at $110,130 as a lower high. Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that prior death crosses often preceded rallies if the cycle remains intact, but a lack of rebound within the next week might confirm a deeper correction.
"Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails. The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week," Cowen stated.
Rekt Capital highlighted the confluence of the 50-week EMA and a macro downtrend, warning that rejection from this level would signal weakness and a lower high formation. On the three-day chart, recent candle patterns resemble those from the 2022 FTX collapse, which preceded the last bear market’s nadir. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described this as a “great” bottoming signal, predicting trading between $90,000 and $96,000 in the upcoming week, though overextension in sentiment metrics tempers optimism. Daan Crypto Trades observed that while Bitcoin has lost its bull market support band—creating a $20,000+ gap to reclaim—the weekly structure remains intact, suggesting resilience if key levels hold.
Shifts in Investor Behavior and On-Chain Metrics
On-chain data reveals a significant redistribution of Bitcoin supply, with long-term holders (LTHs, those holding over 155 days) distributing 63,000 BTC to short-term holders (STHs) over the past 30 days. This transfer indicates LTHs are capitalizing on higher prices to offload, while STHs—often more speculative—are accumulating amid volatility. The STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) dipped to a 15-month low of 0.927 over the weekend, reflecting panic selling among newer entrants caught in the drawdown.
- LTHs showing net distribution, per CryptoQuant analysis, contrasting with STH accumulation at elevated prices.
- Overall market implications: Increased speculation could amplify volatility if downside persists, but absorption by STHs may provide a floor if sentiment improves.
- Historical context: Similar shifts occurred during the 2022 bear market, leading to capitulation before recoveries.
This dynamic underscores a divide in investor cohorts, with LTHs reducing exposure and STHs stepping in, potentially stabilizing supply but heightening risks from leveraged positions.
Economic Data and Broader Market Influences
The upcoming Thanksgiving-shortened week in the U.S. introduces a packed schedule of economic releases, which could sway risk assets like Bitcoin. September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, alongside Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims, are due, potentially clarifying inflation trends and growth outlook amid a government shutdown backlog. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have softened, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing 70% odds of a 0.25% cut in December, down from prior highs. Fed minutes indicate many officials favor holding rates steady through year-end, contributing to hawkish tones. Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company suggests U.S. stocks are oversold, with the S&P 500’s relative strength index (RSI) hitting a low of below 35—its weakest since April—potentially setting up a seasonal rally.
"Recent conditions across breadth are also favoring a rally, which comes as seasonality turns into a big tailwind during this holiday-shortened week," Mosaic Asset observed, noting rising buying pressure late last week.
For Bitcoin, these macro factors could either bolster a rebound if data supports easing or exacerbate declines if inflation surprises higher. The Kobeissi Letter described the recent correction as structural, driven by leverage and liquidations rather than specific news triggers.
Sentiment Recovery Amid Extreme Fear
Crypto market sentiment is rebounding faster than traditional finance counterparts, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing to 19/100 from 2025 lows, still in “extreme fear” but doubling recently. In contrast, the traditional Fear & Greed Index for stocks languishes at 11/100, highlighting crypto’s relative resilience. Santiment data shows Bitcoin social sentiment at its lowest since December 2023, with retail capitulation evident across platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram—levels not seen in two years. This panic selling may signal a contrarian bottom, as extreme negativity often precedes upturns.
"According to bullish vs. bearish comments… retail is capitulating and panic selling at a significant level we haven't seen in 2 years," Santiment reported.
Overall, these trends suggest crypto could lead a broader risk asset recovery, though uncertainties around the death cross and macro data persist—flagged as potential variables if historical patterns deviate. Bitcoin’s path hinges on whether technical bounces materialize before year-end pressures mount. How do you assess Bitcoin’s rebound potential amid these mixed signals and economic releases?
